No Dougies, Shimmies, or Cat Daddies but the Big Dance–that time of the year where collegiate hoops steals the spotlight from the NBA has finally arrived.
With March Madness a few days away, not to mention a chance to win $1,000,000,000 for predicting correctly the outcomes of all 63 matches, basketball fans are putting on their scouting hats for one of the most anticipated draft classes to date and looking forward to the most wide open races to the top.
As for the alumni playing at the professional level, this is also a time to show off their school pride by cheering for their alma mater.
But if these NBA players could relive their finest moments by representing their schools in a tournament, which roster would be deemed as title favourites? Welcome to the Big Dance Power Rankings: NBA Redux.
This is an attempt to measure the league’s best represented colleges and universities against each another through advanced metrics.
Inasmuch as the original plan was to use Kevin Pelton’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), the information was not available for non-subscribers of Basketball Prospectus, stating that their core-writers Kevin Pelton, Bradford Doolittle, and John Gasaway have moved full-time to ESPN Insider.
Researching for an alternative statistic, I ended up using Win Shares (WS) over Player Efficiency Rating (PER) because it gave a holistic assessment of a player’s offensive and defensive contributions on the court.
Win Shares uses Dean Oliver‘s offensive and defensive ratings to determine a player’s contribution in marginal points on offense and defense; these numbers are then linked to wins by dividing by the league’s marginal points per win. – Neil Paine, Basketball-Reference.com
Moreover, according to Paine, they reviewed all NBA teams since the 1977-78 season and found that the Win Shares of each player was pretty accurate–the average absolute error for WS vs. “real” wins is 2.72 wins.
Player Efficiency Rating was developed by John Hollinger as an all-in-one basketball rating but provides an incomplete analysis on defense through stats on the box score (steals and blocks), which is not enough to measure a player’s defensive acumen. On the other hand, Win Shares takes into consideration the overall defensive performance through Defensive Rating.
With this, I looked into the most represented NCAA teams in the association and identified the Win Shares of each player via Basketball-Reference.com. To be considered in this rankings, there must be at least 8 alumni active in current rosters. Given that 1 of the 9 teams features exactly 8 players, only the top 8 players’ WS of each team were taken into consideration. In addition, the selection process for each roster is based on the highest 8 to 10 Player Efficiency Ratings while the starters are determined based on position and the personal disgression of this committee of one. (Win Shares and PER based through Mar. 15, 2014.)
Before getting down to business, this one team would have been included had it not been a few people short of the criteria:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Top 8 WS Total: 22.8)
Starters: Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu, James Johnson, Tim Duncan
Bench: Ish Smith
With CP3 and TD leading the way, the Demon Deacons would be ranked 8th just by their sheer talent and leadership. Jeff Teague was Paul’s successor in Wake Forest and clearly he has improved significantly ever since he was drafted by the Hawks. Swingmen Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson would hold their ground against the other teams on this list.
9. Arizona Wildcats (19.2)
Starters: Jerryd Bayless, Andre Iguodala, Derrick Williams, Channing Frye, Jordan Hill
Bench: Will Bynum, Jason Terry, Chase Budinger, Richard Jefferson, Solomon Hill
Andre Iguodala, the lone All-Star and Olympian, highlights the Arizona squad that features key role players–Celtics’ combo guard Jerryd Bayless, former no. 2 pick Derrick Williams, Suns stretch forward-center Channing Frye and Lakers big man Jordan Hill. What the starters lack in scoring can be compensated by the Bynumite and the JET coming from the bench. Overall, these group of Wildcats are decent enough to put up a fight–but not the kind that former Arizona guard Gilbert Arenas is associated to.
8. Kansas Jayhawks (22.5)
Starters: Mario Chalmers, Xavier Henry, Paul Pierce, Markieff Morris, Nick Collison
Bench: Kirk Hinrich, Ben McLemore, Marcus Morris, Thomas Robinson, Darrell Arthur
In spite of being ranked this low, the Jayhawks remain in select company sporting a starting five with two former NBA Champions in Paul Pierce and Mario Chalmers. They are joined by Markieff Morris who is currently having a breakout year in Phoenix, and Xavier Henry who was balling before his more recent injury. Manning the middle is Nick Collison, co-captain of the Glue Guy All-Stars, who takes care of the intangibles.
Current Jayhawk season leading scorer Ben McLemore, former lottery pick Thomas Robinson and the other half of the Morris twins lead the bench mob for this squad. This is a mix of veteran and upcoming individuals that will need some time to grow into their own before challenging the other teams in this list.
7. North Carolina Tar Heels (25.1)
Starters: Ty Lawson, Vince Carter, Marvin Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright
Bench: Kendall Marshall, Danny Green, Ed Davis, John Henson, Tyler Zeller
Running the high-octane offense for the Tar Heels will be speedster Ty Lawson and backed up by pass-first point guard Kendall Marshall. Vince “Half-man, half-amazing” Carter, though now a shade of his former self, still has some hops left to serve as the Tar Heels offensive punch. Edging out fellow alum Harrison Barnes at the small forward spot is former Hawks pick Marvin Williams who is quietly performing well in the lottery-bound Utah Jazz.
This team’s strength can be found in the length of their frontcourt players Brandan Wright and former NCAA Champion Psycho T who will tandem in a zone-oriented defense. Supporting the cause will be bench players Ed Davis, 2012 draftees John Henson and Tyler Zeller. As long as they have enough credibility from the 3-point line, the Tar Heels, led by Lawson, will need to control the tempo to grind out some wins.
6. UConn Huskies (27.9)
Starters: Kemba Walker, Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, Andre Drummond, Emeka Okafor*
Bench: A.J. Price, Jeremy Lamb, Caron Butler, Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet
*WS based last season 2012-13.
Assuming that 2004-05 Rookie of the Year Emeka Okafor is healthy, this is a team to be reckoned with. With Kemba Walker taking another leap this season and Andre Drummond scratching the surface of his immense potential, the UConn Huskies will be ready to create some havoc on both ends of the floor. Baltimore-native Rudy Gay will also fill in the scoring gaps of the starting lineup.
With rings under their resumé, Ray Allen and Caron Butler will steady the ship by providing the team with veteran savvy. What the Huskies clearly lack is depth but if the bench namely Jeremy Lamb and Hasheem Thabeet can hold the fort, this team is the dark horse.
5. Duke Blue Devils (29.7)
Starters: Kyrie Irving, J. J. Redick, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Miles Plumlee
Bench: Gerald Henderson, Mike Dunleavy, Josh McRoberts, Elton Brand, Mason Plumlee
Right smack at the middle of these rankings is Coach K’s crew of stars and specialists. Fresh from his first All-Star MVP Award, Kyrie Irving will be taking full charge of ball-handling duties with this roster bereft of point guards. Sharing the floor with him are fellow All-Stars Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, and Elton Brand who will take some pressure off from Irving carrying the offensive load.
Even without all-lifer Shane Battier, the team’s offensive repertoire will be complemented by Duke’s most prolific shooters in history, J. J. Redick together with Gerald Henderson and Mike Dunleavy, to chime in from beyond the arc. Not to be outdone are the Plumlee brothers who are both taking the league by surprise with their performance this season.
Though they may struggle to contain the other big men, the Duke Blue Devils have the right amount of talent and depth to challenge teams every night.
4. Florida Gators (34.6)
Starters: Bradley Beal, Chandler Parsons, David Lee, Joakim Noah, Al Horford
Bench: Nick Calathes, Mike Miller, Corey Brewer, Udonis Haslem, Marreese Speights
Sporting the only line-up without a true point guard, the Florida Gators are loaded up front with David Lee, back-to-back NCAA Champions Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Joakim Noah. Bradley Beal and Chandler Parsons are currently on their way to breakout seasons, contributing heavily from distance to the Wizards and Rockets, and still with much room to grow.
Rebounding against David Lee, Al Horford, and Joakim Noah will be a tall order with these giants averaging 9.5, 8.4 and 11.3 rebounds respectively. What this team lacks in ball-handling, they make up with length and hustle especially with Stick Stickity executing Thibodeau-an principles. With Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem also in the fray, these embattled veterans will cast their Championship influence to the team and ensure they ingrain the “play hard” mentality in the games that matter the most.
3. UCLA Bruins (36.6)
Starters: Russell Westbrook, Jrue Holiday, Arron Afflalo, Trevor Ariza, Kevin Love
Bench: Darren Collison, Jordan Farmar, Matt Barnes, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Hollins
With arguably two of the top 10 players in the league and budding stars, the UCLA Bruins have a starting five featuring four guards and a shooting big that is tailor-made to today’s evolving game. Starring rebounding machine Kevin Love and blitzing guard Russell Westbrook, the pride of Los Angeles welcomes the likes of Jrue Holiday, Arron Afflalo, and Trevor Ariza to showcase a quick line-up that can take any of their men off the dribble or shoot from anywhere on the court.
At the same time, UCLA presents a hoist of floor generals with Darren Collison and Jordan Farmar backing up both guard positions. Aside from this, defensive aces Matt Barnes and Luc Mbah a Moute can come in to provide some length and toughness to the team. Opponents cannot take this bunch lightly because when the lights go on, the UCLA Bruins will be ready to put on a show.
2. Kentucky Wildcats (37.3)
Starters: Rajon Rondo, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Bench: Brandon Knight, Jodie Meeks, Terrence Jones, Patrick Patterson, Enes Kanter
Whatever John Callipari is feeding his players in Lexington, it seems to be working its magic. Year after year, he assembles a constellation of talent. From Stars-in-the-making (Nerlens Noel) to Rising Stars (Eric Bledsoe, Terrence Jones) to All-Stars (Rajon Rondo, John Wall, arguably DeMarcus Cousins) to Superstars (Anthony Davis), he’s got it.
Surprisingly, even with a heavily stacked roster, the Kentucky Wildcats finish second in this rankings primarily because one of their key players–Rajon Rondo–is still getting into his flow. Nevertheless, this is the only team in this list that can claim going 10-deep, rocking perhaps another starting unit off its bench.
With Rondo at the helm, he will demand the respect of his fellow starters, being the only one to have won the league’s most coveted crown. Wall and Bledsoe will easily break down defenses with their explosive first step but if that option is taken away, dumping it down low to either A. D. or Boogie does not seem as a bad alternative.
At this point, the bench has not yet even been mentioned but Brandon Knight, Jones and Enes Kanter can easily relieve their counterparts, and allow no compromise in output. The way this team is built, it definitely has the makings of a championship contender and if there was a team to wager on, without hesitation it would be these Wildcats.
1. Texas Longhorns (38.5)
Starters: D. J. Augustin, Avery Bradley, Kevin Durant, Tristan Thompson, LaMarcus Aldridge
Bench: Cory Joseph, Jordan Hamilton, P. J. Tucker
Then again, that is betting against the second-best player in the league–Kevin Durant a.k.a. Durantula/ The Slim Reaper/ The Servant. Asserting himself even more after Westbrook’s injury, the Oklahoma City superstar is making his presence felt in the MVP race, averaging 31.8 ppg-7.6 rpg-5.6 apg this season on pace to 50-40-90 shooting splits at a ridiculous rate of 21 shots per game. With a remarkable 15 Win Shares, KD is the reason why the Longhorns are ranked first.
Playing Robin to Kevin Durant’s Batman is fellow All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge who, like Durant, has stepped up his game as of this season. Rounding up the starting five is the rejuvenated D. J. Augustin, defensive stalwart Avery Bradley, and the ambidextrous Tristan Thompson.
Their obvious weakness would be the bench (or the lack of players) but if their frontcourt players stay out of foul trouble, the aspiring MVP would make sure that his opponents remember one thing–he is not nice.
Appendix
| 1 – Texas Longhorns | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 135.78 (4th) | 38.5 (1st) |
| Average | 16.97 | 4.81 |
| PER | WS | |
| D.J. Augustin | 15.33 | 4 |
| Avery Bradley | 12.25 | 1.2 |
| Kevin Durant | 30.51 | 15 |
| Tristan Thompson | 14.81 | 4 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 21.99 | 6.6 |
| Cory Joseph | 14.1 | 2 |
| Jordan Hamilton | 13.57 | 1.3 |
| P.J. Tucker | 13.22 | 4.4 |
| 2 – Kentucky Wildcats | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 159.4 (1st) | 37.3 (2nd) |
| Average | 19.93 | 4.7 |
| Rajon Rondo | 15.82 | 0.6 |
| John Wall | 20.48 | 6.6 |
| Eric Bledsoe | 19.84 | 2.5 |
| Anthony Davis | 26.23 | 8.2 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 25.78 | 5.9 |
| Brandon Knight | 16.91 | 2.3 |
| Jodie Meeks | 13.95 | 3 |
| Terrence Jones | 18.26 | 5.3 |
| Patrick Patterson | 15.24 | 3.5 |
| Enes Kanter | 16.08 | 2 |
| 3 – UCLA Bruins | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 148.77 (2nd) | 36.6 (3rd) |
| Average | 18.60 | 4.6 |
| Russell Westbrook | 23.78 | 3.6 |
| Jrue Holiday | 17.36 | 1.6 |
| Arron Afflalo | 17.48 | 4.8 |
| Trevor Ariza | 17.08 | 6.6 |
| Kevin Love | 28.17 | 12.1 |
| Matt Barnes | 11.72 | 2.3 |
| Darren Collison | 16.85 | 4.6 |
| Jordan Farmar | 16.33 | 1 |
| Ryan Hollins | 10.84 | 1 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 8.34 | 0.8 |
| 4 – Florida Gators | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 131.58 (5th) | 34.6 (4th) |
| Average | 16.45 | 4.3 |
| Bradley Beal | 14.34 | 2.6 |
| Chandler Parsons | 16.26 | 6.2 |
| David Lee | 19.65 | 6.9 |
| Al Horford | 22.14 | 2.8 |
| Joakim Noah | 19.65 | 7.9 |
| Nick Calathes | 11.83 | 0.9 |
| Mike Miller | 12.64 | 3 |
| Corey Brewer | 11.55 | 3.5 |
| Udonis Haslem | 6.98 | 0.2 |
| Marreese Speights | 15.07 | 1.7 |
| 5 – Duke Blue Devils | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 127.47 (7th) | 29.7 (5th) |
| Average | 15.93 | 3.7 |
| Kyrie Irving | 20.13 | 5.7 |
| J.J. Redick | 17.03 | 2.8 |
| Luol Deng | 15.53 | 3.7 |
| Carlos Boozer | 14.7 | 2.6 |
| Miles Plumlee | 14.35 | 2.8 |
| Gerald Henderson | 12.93 | 2.3 |
| Mike Dunleavy | 12.53 | 4.5 |
| Josh McRoberts | 13.88 | 4.9 |
| Elton Brand | 13.92 | 2.2 |
| Mason Plumlee | 17.93 | 2.7 |
| 6 – UConn Huskies | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 130.6 (6th) | 27.9 (6th) |
| Average | 16.33 | 3.5 |
| Kemba Walker | 17.11 | 3.7 |
| Ray Allen | 12.16 | 2.6 |
| Rudy Gay | 19.09 | 4.1 |
| Andre Drummond | 22.42 | 7.8 |
| Emeka Okafor | 15.88 | 4.5 |
| A.J. Price | 9.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Lamb | 14.16 | 3.3 |
| Caron Butler | 12.21 | 0.4 |
| Jeff Adrien | 17.57 | 1.5 |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 8.14 | 0.1 |
| 7 – North Carolina Tar Heels | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 138.6 (3rd) | 24.3 (7th) |
| Average | 17.33 | 3.0 |
| Ty Lawson | 20.67 | 5.6 |
| Vince Carter | 16.58 | 3.5 |
| Marvin Williams | 14.76 | 2.7 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 14.44 | 2.3 |
| Brandan Wright | 24.08 | 3.4 |
| Kendall Marshall | 13.82 | 1.2 |
| Danny Green | 12.49 | 2.4 |
| Ed Davis | 15.64 | 2 |
| John Henson | 17.8 | 2.4 |
| Tyler Zeller | 14.63 | 1.7 |
| 8 – Kansas Jayhawks | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 114.71 (8th) | 22.5 (8th) |
| Average | 14.34 | 2.8 |
| Mario Chalmers | 14.39 | 3.6 |
| Xavier Henry | 12.88 | 0.6 |
| Paul Pierce | 16.06 | 3.4 |
| Markieff Morris | 18.41 | 4.6 |
| Nick Collison | 12.27 | 3 |
| Kirk Hinrich | 10.57 | 2.6 |
| Ben McLemore | 7.38 | 0.2 |
| Marcus Morris | 15.84 | 3.5 |
| Thomas Robinson | 14.29 | 1.2 |
| Darrell Arthur | 8.12 | 0.3 |
| Arizona Wildcats | ||
| Top 8 PER | Top 8 WS | |
| Total | 105.85 (9th) | 19.2 (9th) |
| Average | 13.23 | 2.4 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 12.1 | 1.7 |
| Andre Iguodala | 13.31 | 4.5 |
| Derrick Williams | 12.12 | 2.1 |
| Channing Frye | 14.23 | 4.4 |
| Jordan Hill | 17.9 | 3 |
| Will Bynum | 14.89 | 1 |
| Jason Terry | 7.52 | 0.2 |
| Chase Budinger | 7.66 | 0.4 |
| Richard Jefferson | 12.03 | 2.1 |
| Solomon Hill | 9.27 | 0.3 |
urbancrossover 